[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 2 10:52:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at low levels today. Region
1164(N25E19) produced several B- and C-class flares, the
largest being a C6 flare at 0413UT. Solar wind speed
gradually increased from 300 km/s to over 600 km/s during
the last 24 hours, possibly due to the arrival of a corotating
interaction region. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+/- 11T during the UT day today. Solar wind stream is expected
to remain strengthened due to the effect of a recurrent coronal
hole for the next 3 days. Solar activity is expected to stay
mostly at low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of M-class activity from region 1164.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 23 22434544
Darwin 20 22333544
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 21 22334544
Canberra 18 22334533
Hobart 21 22434543
Casey(Ant) 26 34543444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0010 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 15 Unsettled to active, periods of minor storm possible.
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to active, periods of minor storm possible.
04 Mar 13 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to minor storm levels
today due to the arrival of a corotating interaction region.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at unsettled to active
levels for the next three days with the possibility of minor
storm periods on day 1 and 2 due to the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly fair HF conditions may be expected for mid
and high latitude locations for the next three days.
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Mar 28 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be expected
across Aus/NZ regions for the next 3 days due to an expected
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 15000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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