[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 1 10:51:40 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1254UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 98/45
COMMENT: Soalr activity was at moderate levels today. Region
1164(N26E33) produced several B- and C-class flares and an
M1.1(1252UT) flare. A C2 flare(0738UT) was associated with
a Type II radio burst. Solar wind speed stayed around 330 km/s
and Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 5nT for most parts
of the UT day today. Solar wind stream may get strengthened
due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole from 2nd March.
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at low levels for
the next three days with some possibility of M-class activity
from region 1164.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111121
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 12011122
Canberra 2 12000011
Hobart 2 12110010
Casey(Ant) 8 33321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 3 Quiet
02 Mar 5 Quiet to unsettled
03 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may show enhancements from 2nd
March due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions may
be expected on 2 and 3 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for
most locatiosn for the next two days. Minor to mild MUF
depressions may be observed on the third day due to an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 30 near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected across
Aus/NZ regions for the next 2 days with some possibility of
minor to mild MUF depressions on the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 73600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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