[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:53:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1236 which has rotated off disk, was the source of 2 B-class 
flares, the largest being a B9.6 flare at 1321UT. Newly numbered 
regions in the last 24 hours were 1242(N18W02) and 1243(N18E62) 
which was the source of B3.2 class flare at 0647UT. Solar wind 
speed ranged between 420km/s-360km/s over the UT day with what 
appears to be a solar sector boundary crossing occuring roughly 
at 13UT. IMF Bz ranged between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   12001000
      Darwin               2   22101001
      Townsville           2   22101001
      Learmonth            1   12001000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   12000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     5    Quiet 
30 Jun     5    Quiet 
01 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 
days. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity on 01Jul with 
the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 Jun    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUF's depressions ranging from 15% to 25% observed during 
local day and night across the Australian/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days, in particular with continued MUF depressions during local 
day ranging from 10%-20% for Equatorial, Northern AUS,Southern 
AUS/NZ regions and weak ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    43800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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