[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:53:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1236 which has rotated off disk, was the source of 2 B-class
flares, the largest being a B9.6 flare at 1321UT. Newly numbered
regions in the last 24 hours were 1242(N18W02) and 1243(N18E62)
which was the source of B3.2 class flare at 0647UT. Solar wind
speed ranged between 420km/s-360km/s over the UT day with what
appears to be a solar sector boundary crossing occuring roughly
at 13UT. IMF Bz ranged between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 12001000
Darwin 2 22101001
Townsville 2 22101001
Learmonth 1 12001000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 5 Quiet
01 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2
days. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity on 01Jul with
the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF's depressions ranging from 15% to 25% observed during
local day and night across the Australian/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days, in particular with continued MUF depressions during local
day ranging from 10%-20% for Equatorial, Northern AUS,Southern
AUS/NZ regions and weak ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list