[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 28 09:45:33 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              94/40              96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1236 which has rotated off disk, was the source of 2 B-class 
flares which included a long duration B6.6 flare at 1542UT. Solar 
wind speed continued to decline, from approx 480km/s at 00UT 
to be 400km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz ranged between 
+/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112001
      Darwin               4   -3211011
      Townsville           2   1111200-
      Learmonth            3   11122001
      Canberra             2   110-----
      Hobart               2   11012000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3311 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     5    Quiet 
29 Jun     5    Quiet 
30 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jun    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 15% observed during local day for 
Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions and Antarctic regions over 
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial 
regions with IPS Cocos Is. station having depressed periods during 
local night along with Northern AUS stations. Similar HF conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with continued MUF depressions 
during local day ranging from 10%-20% for Northern AUS, Southern 
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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