[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:35:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              86/29              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and 
is expected to remain so for the next 3 days. Over the last 24 
hours, the solar wind speed declined from around 550km/s to ~500km/s. 
The IMF Bz has ranged between +/-2nT for the last 10 hours. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue declining over the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23112121
      Darwin               5   221122--
      Townsville           6   23112121
      Learmonth            7   23122221
      Canberra             4   23012110
      Hobart               4   22112111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2221 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     5    Quiet 
28 Jun     5    Quiet 
29 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet, with some 
Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian region. 
There were some Storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions over 
the next 3 days are expected to be mostly Quiet. Isolated Active 
to Storm periods are likely at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
28 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
29 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most regions during 
the last 24 hours. Slightly improved HF conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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