[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 26 09:41:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind 
speed declined from around 600km/s and is now fluctuating between 
500-600km/s. Over the same period, the IMF Bz varied between 
+/-4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline from 27 Jun 
when the mild influence of a small equatorial coronal hole abates. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22131110
      Darwin               5   22221211
      Townsville           4   22121110
      Learmonth            6   22132210
      Canberra             4   11131110
      Hobart               4   11131111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3222 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jun     5    Quiet 
28 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet, with some 
Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian region. 
There were some Active and Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. 
Conditions over the next 3 days are expected to be mostly Quiet, 
with some Unsettled periods on 26 Jun due to a small equatorial 
coronal hole. Some Active periods at high latitudes are likely 
over the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
27 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed in Northern and Southern 
regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected 
for 26 Jun, with gradual improvement thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 606 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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