[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 26 09:41:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with a slight
chance of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed declined from around 600km/s and is now fluctuating between
500-600km/s. Over the same period, the IMF Bz varied between
+/-4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline from 27 Jun
when the mild influence of a small equatorial coronal hole abates.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22131110
Darwin 5 22221211
Townsville 4 22121110
Learmonth 6 22132210
Canberra 4 11131110
Hobart 4 11131111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet, with some
Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian region.
There were some Active and Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.
Conditions over the next 3 days are expected to be mostly Quiet,
with some Unsettled periods on 26 Jun due to a small equatorial
coronal hole. Some Active periods at high latitudes are likely
over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
27 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed in Northern and Southern
regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for 26 Jun, with gradual improvement thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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