[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 25 09:46:11 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with a slight 
chance of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind 
speed declined slightly and is now around 600km/s. Over the same 
period, the IMF Bz varied between +/-4nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to decline further over the next day before a possible 
slight increase on 26 Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22232223
      Darwin               8   22222232
      Townsville           9   22232223
      Learmonth           13   22333333
      Canberra             8   21232223
      Hobart              11   22233323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   4423 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over 
the last 24 hours for the Australian region with Major Storm 
periods at high latitudes. Conditions are expected to become 
gradually quieter over the next 3 days, with Unsettled periods 
becoming less frequent. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
26 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
27 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over much of the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected 
for 25 Jun, with gradual improvement thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 605 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   193000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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