[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:37:51 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with the chance
of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed
has mostly varied between 600-650km/s with a brief excursion
to ~700km/s around 03UT. For the last 12 hours, the IMF Bz has
fluctuated between -5nT to +2nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated during 24 Jun until the influence of the southern
hemisphere coronal hole wanes. Earthward components of CMEs observed
on 20 and 21 Jun might cause further disturbance of the solar
wind parameters on 24 Jun. A small equatorial coronal hole might
elevate the solar wind speed again on 26 Jun.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0225UT
on 23 Jun.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
23/0525UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 33234322
Darwin 14 33224333
Townsville 12 23234322
Learmonth 13 33224332
Canberra 11 23233322
Hobart 13 33234322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 107 (Major storm)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3212 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 18 active
25 Jun 12 Unsettled
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 23 June and
is current for interval 23-24 June. Geomagnetic conditions were
Quiet to Active over the last 24 hours for the Australian region
with Major Storm periods at high latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for 24 Jun, with activity declining thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
25 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days, with occasional depressions possible
on 24 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 93500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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