[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 11

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:37:51 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with the chance 
of C-class flares. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed 
has mostly varied between 600-650km/s with a brief excursion 
to ~700km/s around 03UT. For the last 12 hours, the IMF Bz has 
fluctuated between -5nT to +2nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated during 24 Jun until the influence of the southern 
hemisphere coronal hole wanes. Earthward components of CMEs observed 
on 20 and 21 Jun might cause further disturbance of the solar 
wind parameters on 24 Jun. A small equatorial coronal hole might 
elevate the solar wind speed again on 26 Jun. 

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0225UT 
on 23 Jun. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
23/0525UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33234322
      Darwin              14   33224333
      Townsville          12   23234322
      Learmonth           13   33224332
      Canberra            11   23233322
      Hobart              13   33234322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           107   (Major storm)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3212 2343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    18    active 
25 Jun    12    Unsettled 
26 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 23 June and 
is current for interval 23-24 June. Geomagnetic conditions were 
Quiet to Active over the last 24 hours for the Australian region 
with Major Storm periods at high latitudes. Similar conditions 
are expected for 24 Jun, with activity declining thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
25 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days, with occasional depressions possible 
on 24 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    93500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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