[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 23 09:41:32 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low and 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days, with the chance 
of C-class flares. The solar wind speed has increased to 600km/s. 
The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-5nT range, with a more disturbed 
period to +/-10nT around 19UT. Solar wind speed is expected to 
remain elevated for the next 2 days due to a large coronal hole 
in the southern hemisphere. Earthward components of CMEs observed 
on 20 and 21 Jun are likely to cause further disturbance of the 
solar wind parameters from 23 Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 22 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22132331
      Darwin               9   32222331
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            9   21122432
      Canberra             9   22132331
      Hobart               9   22132331
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2321 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    18    Active 
24 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled, 
with some Active periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian 
region. Conditions are expected to become more Active on 23 Jun 
due to the expected arrival of two weak CMEs. Active to Major 
Storm periods in Antarctica are likely for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jun    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
24 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
25 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to improve slightly 
over the next 2 days due to likely increased geomagnetic activity 
resulting from mild effects of CME arrivals on 23 Jun, though 
some depressed periods are likely. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    88000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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