[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 22 09:53:08 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. Region 
1236 produced a long duration C7 event that peaked at 0325UT. 
This was associated with a CME which has an earth-directed component, 
expected to arrive late on 23 Jun. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low for the next 3 days, with the possibility of an M-class 
flare from region 1236. The solar wind speed increased gradually 
from 400 to 480km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-6nT until 
around 14UT, then gradually diminished in intensity. Solar wind 
speed is expected to increase from late on 22 Jun due to a large 
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, effects of which are 
likely to last 2 days. Earthward components of CMEs observed 
on 20 and 21 Jun are likely to cause disturbance of the solar 
wind parameters from late on 23 Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12213222
      Darwin               8   13213222
      Townsville           8   22213321
      Learmonth            7   22312222
      Canberra             7   12213222
      Hobart               7   12213222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2231 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    12    Unsettled 
23 Jun    18    active 
24 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over 
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Similar conditions 
are expected for 22 Jun, with possible Active periods from late 
on 23 Jun due to the expected arrival of two weak CMEs. Active 
to Major storm periods in Antarctica are likely for the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
23 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
24 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas 
over the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic-E were observed in 
the northern region between 04 and 14UT. HF conditions are expected 
to improve to near normal conditions with occasional depressions 
from late on 22 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list