[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 22 09:53:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. Region
1236 produced a long duration C7 event that peaked at 0325UT.
This was associated with a CME which has an earth-directed component,
expected to arrive late on 23 Jun. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 3 days, with the possibility of an M-class
flare from region 1236. The solar wind speed increased gradually
from 400 to 480km/s. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-6nT until
around 14UT, then gradually diminished in intensity. Solar wind
speed is expected to increase from late on 22 Jun due to a large
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, effects of which are
likely to last 2 days. Earthward components of CMEs observed
on 20 and 21 Jun are likely to cause disturbance of the solar
wind parameters from late on 23 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 12213222
Darwin 8 13213222
Townsville 8 22213321
Learmonth 7 22312222
Canberra 7 12213222
Hobart 7 12213222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2231 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 12 Unsettled
23 Jun 18 active
24 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Similar conditions
are expected for 22 Jun, with possible Active periods from late
on 23 Jun due to the expected arrival of two weak CMEs. Active
to Major storm periods in Antarctica are likely for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
23 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
24 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas
over the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic-E were observed in
the northern region between 04 and 14UT. HF conditions are expected
to improve to near normal conditions with occasional depressions
from late on 22 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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