[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 21 09:42:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
The solar wind speed varied in the range 370-430km/s and the
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase from late on 22 Jun due to a large coronal hole in
the southern hemisphere, effects of which are likely to last
2 days. The earthward component of the CME observed on 20 Jun
is likely to cause mild disturbance to the solar wind parameters
from late on 23 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12211021
Darwin 5 12211122
Townsville 4 22211021
Learmonth 4 12211021
Canberra 3 12211010
Hobart 3 12211010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun 12 Unsettled
23 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region, with some Active and Minor Storm periods
in Antarctica. These conditions are expected to continue until
late on 22 Jun when coronal hole effects are expected to result
in some Unsettled periods for 2 days. Weak CME effects might further
increase activity from late on 23 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
22 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
23 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas
over the last 24 hours. Sporadic-E was observed in the northern
region from 09-12UT. HF conditions are expected to be similar
for the next 2 days with some improvement likely on 23 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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