[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 21 09:42:53 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low. 
The solar wind speed varied in the range 370-430km/s and the 
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to increase from late on 22 Jun due to a large coronal hole in 
the southern hemisphere, effects of which are likely to last 
2 days. The earthward component of the CME observed on 20 Jun 
is likely to cause mild disturbance to the solar wind parameters 
from late on 23 Jun. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211021
      Darwin               5   12211122
      Townsville           4   22211021
      Learmonth            4   12211021
      Canberra             3   12211010
      Hobart               3   12211010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jun    12    Unsettled 
23 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours 
for the Australian region, with some Active and Minor Storm periods 
in Antarctica. These conditions are expected to continue until 
late on 22 Jun when coronal hole effects are expected to result 
in some Unsettled periods for 2 days. Weak CME effects might further 
increase activity from late on 23 Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
22 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
23 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas 
over the last 24 hours. Sporadic-E was observed in the northern 
region from 09-12UT. HF conditions are expected to be similar 
for the next 2 days with some improvement likely on 23 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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