[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 20 09:47:27 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar acitivty was low with 2 C-Class flares, 
a C4.7 from region 1234(S16W74) at 1522UT and a C1.5 from 
region 1237 (S15E39) at 1637UT. New region 1238(S17E11) 
was numbered today. A partial halo CME was observed in 
SOHO imagery at around 1648UT associated with the C1.7 flare 
from region 1237. STEREO imagery suggests that it has an 
Earthward directed component.The solar wind speed remained 
at low levels between 380-410km/s almost the whole day.The 
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day. 
A weak coronal hole may slightly elevate the wind speed from 
20th June. Solar wind stream is expected to show a further 
strengthening from late on 22 June as a  large coronal hole 
is expected to become geoeffective around that time. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           2   11011011
      Learmonth            2   11111001
      Canberra             1   01011000
      Hobart               1   00111000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet today with isolated 
Unsetteled periods at high latitude locations. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to rise to Unsettled levels on 20 and 
21 June due to the expected effect of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a weak coronal hole. Isolated Active periods might 
be possible late on 22 June as a large coronal hole is expected 
to take a geoeffective position around that time. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair           Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions were observed on 19 June. Mild to moderate depressions 
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jun    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
21 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
22 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
in most locations today. Mild to moderate MUF depressions and 
degradations in HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 
days due to an expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    55800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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