[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:53:37 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed  Very Low today. Solar wind 
speed stayed between 380 and 440 km/s for most parts of the day 
today, whereas the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT 
almost the whole day. Solar activity is expected to be Low over 
the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity. 
Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal levels on 19 
June, and then show strengthening from 20 June as a coronal hole 
is expected to become geoeffective from 20 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11200000
      Darwin               2   11200100
      Townsville           2   11200101
      Learmonth            2   11210000
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               1   11100000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   4311 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     5    Quiet 
20 Jun     7    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet today. Mostly quiet 
conditins may be expected on 19 June. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to rise to Unsettled levels on 20 and 21 June due to 
the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a 
coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions 
were observed on 18 June. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on 19 June with the possibility of minor to mild degradations 
on 20 and 21 June due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    48    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to 
                15% 
21 Jun    42    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in most 
locations today. HF conditions may be expected to stay mostly 
normal on 19 June. Minor to mild degradations may be possible 
on 20 and 21 June due to an expected enhancement in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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