[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 30 09:45:25 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1240 produced a B7.3 class flare at 0032UT and regions 
1240 and 1242 were the source of other minor B-class events. 
Region 1242(N17W16) underwent some growth in the last 12 hours 
but remains quiet and stable. Solar wind speed fell from 380km/s 
to 340km/s over the UT day. IMF Bz ranged between +4nT-0nT. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   11100000
      Learmonth            0   01010000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2200 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     5    Quiet 
01 Jul    12    Unsettled 
02 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 
hours. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity for 01Jul-02Jul 
with the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high 
speed solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15% to 30% observed during 
local day and night across the Australian/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days, in particular with continued MUF depressions during local 
day ranging from 10%-20% for Northern AUS,Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial regions with 
expected depressions of approx 20% during local night. Weak
ionospheric support expected for Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    40000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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