[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 30 09:45:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1240 produced a B7.3 class flare at 0032UT and regions
1240 and 1242 were the source of other minor B-class events.
Region 1242(N17W16) underwent some growth in the last 12 hours
but remains quiet and stable. Solar wind speed fell from 380km/s
to 340km/s over the UT day. IMF Bz ranged between +4nT-0nT. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 0 01010000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 5 Quiet
01 Jul 12 Unsettled
02 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Expected increase in geomagnetic activity for 01Jul-02Jul
with the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15% to 30% observed during
local day and night across the Australian/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days, in particular with continued MUF depressions during local
day ranging from 10%-20% for Northern AUS,Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial regions with
expected depressions of approx 20% during local night. Weak
ionospheric support expected for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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