[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 16 09:52:56 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with 
two C-class flares;C2.6 from region 1236(N17E58) at 1150UT 
and a C3.2 from region 1234(S15W22) at 1432UT. Solar wind 
speed gradually reduced from around 550 km/s to around 
440 km/s over the day with the IMF Bz mostly fluctuating 
between +5/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue 
to diminish back to quiescent levels over the next day or 
two as the coronal hole effects weakens further. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low over the next three days 
with some possibility of isolated M-class events during 
this peiod. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222112
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            5   221121--
      Canberra             3   11212001
      Hobart               4   12222101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2223 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     5    Quiet 
17 Jun     5    Quiet 
18 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and 
mid latitudes. Polar regions were predominantly Quiet 
to Unsettled.  Conditions are expected to be mostly 
Quiet for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions were observed on 15 June, especially at mid 
and high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected for most locations for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed 
today, especially at mid and high latitudes. Mostly nomal 
HF conditions are expected for most locations for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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