[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 16 09:52:56 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with
two C-class flares;C2.6 from region 1236(N17E58) at 1150UT
and a C3.2 from region 1234(S15W22) at 1432UT. Solar wind
speed gradually reduced from around 550 km/s to around
440 km/s over the day with the IMF Bz mostly fluctuating
between +5/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue
to diminish back to quiescent levels over the next day or
two as the coronal hole effects weakens further. Solar
activity is expected to be Low over the next three days
with some possibility of isolated M-class events during
this peiod.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 12222112
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 5 221121--
Canberra 3 11212001
Hobart 4 12222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2223 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and
mid latitudes. Polar regions were predominantly Quiet
to Unsettled. Conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions were observed on 15 June, especially at mid
and high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected for most locations for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed
today, especially at mid and high latitudes. Mostly nomal
HF conditions are expected for most locations for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 537 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list