[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:41:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    2148UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours 
with two C-class and an M1(2130UT) flares from region 1236 
(N17E64). A CME off the East limb was observed in LASCO and 
STEREO imagery at around 0810UT, which is unlikely to be 
geo-effective. Solar wind speed increased from 450Km/s to 
550 km/s during the UT day by the time of report issue. IMF 
Bz mostly fluctuated between +8/-5nT. Solar wind speed is 
expected to gradually decline over the next 3 days. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low over the next three days 
with some possibility of isolated M-class events during 
this peiod. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22231111
      Darwin               5   22230111
      Townsville           6   22231111
      Learmonth            6   22231012
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               4   12230011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2122 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jun     5    Quiet 
17 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled over the mid-part 
of the UT day and Quiet at other times. Isolated Active 
intervals observed at high latitudes. This activity was due 
to the continued effects from a mild coronal hole high speed 
stream. Unsettled periods are expected on day one. Conditions 
should decline to Quiet level on days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions were observed due to continued minor 
enhancements in the geomagnetic activity levels today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions are expected on 15 June, with conditions 
returning to mostly normal levels on the following two 
days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with MUF depressions 
up to 25% at times were observed on mid and high latitude 
locations. Nearly similar HF conditions are expected on day 
one of this forecast peiod with conditions returning to normal 
on the following two days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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