[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 14 09:47:07 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    89/33              91/36              93/38

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. A C-class 
flare was observed from the east Limb (N20) at 0055UT likely 
from a new active region that is about to appear at the north 
east limb. A Partial Halo CME was observed lifting off the SE 
Limb in LASCO and STEREO imagery at 0424UT. Solar wind speed 
varied between 420km/s and 480km/s during most parts of the UT 
day. IMF Bz mostly fluctuated between +5/-6nT. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain nearly at the same levels over the next 
24 hours and then decline over days 2 and 3 as the weak coronal 
hole stream subsides.Isolated C-class events are possible over 
the next few days. Solar activity is expected be Very Low over 
the next 3 days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11222212
      Darwin               6   11222222
      Townsville           7   ---32211
      Learmonth            5   11222112
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               4   11112211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1112 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     7    Quiet 
15 Jun     5    Quiet 
16 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the past 24 
hours with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes. 
Nearly similar levels of activity are expected tomorrow. 
Activity is expected to decline slightly over days 2 and 
3 as the weak coronal hole stream subsides. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with MUF depressions up 
to 25% at times were observed on mid and high latitude locations. 
Continuing weak ionosphere observed in Antarctic region. Nearly 
similar HF conditions are expected on day one of this forecast 
peiod with conditions returning to normal on the following two 
days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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