[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:38:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24 
hours. There are no complex spot groups on the visible solar 
disk. A W-directed CME was observed in association with an eruptive 
prominence on the W limb at 1340UT. This does not appear to be 
Earth-directed. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at 
440-480 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT over 
the UT day. Solar wind parameters should decline to nominal levels 
by day three. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12232111
      Darwin               6   12232111
      Townsville           5   12232110
      Learmonth            6   12232111
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               6   11133210
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3422 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     6    Quiet 
15 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The Australasian geomagnetic field was Unsettled over 
the mid-part of the UT day, and Quiet at other times. Isolated 
Active intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect possible 
Unsettled periods day one under the continuing influence of a 
mild coronal hole solar wind stream. Conditions should decline 
to Quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Widespread night-time MUF depressions to 30% observed 
Equatorial/N Aus regions, extending to mild depressions at Central 
Aus latitudes. Brief periods of night-time spread-F observed 
NZ region. Continuing weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. 
Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Disturbed periods possible day one of the forecast period 
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    96000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list