[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:38:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24
hours. There are no complex spot groups on the visible solar
disk. A W-directed CME was observed in association with an eruptive
prominence on the W limb at 1340UT. This does not appear to be
Earth-directed. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at
440-480 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT over
the UT day. Solar wind parameters should decline to nominal levels
by day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12232111
Darwin 6 12232111
Townsville 5 12232110
Learmonth 6 12232111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 6 11133210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3422 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun 6 Quiet
15 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australasian geomagnetic field was Unsettled over
the mid-part of the UT day, and Quiet at other times. Isolated
Active intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect possible
Unsettled periods day one under the continuing influence of a
mild coronal hole solar wind stream. Conditions should decline
to Quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread night-time MUF depressions to 30% observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions, extending to mild depressions at Central
Aus latitudes. Brief periods of night-time spread-F observed
NZ region. Continuing weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region.
Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly
values. Disturbed periods possible day one of the forecast period
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 96000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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