[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 12 09:42:48 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the past 24 
hours. There are no complex spot groups on the visible solar 
disk. A number of minor N- and W-directed CME's observed in LASCO 
C3 imagery over the UT day were probably far-side events. There 
is a small coronal hole just W of solar central meridian. Solar 
wind speed increased slightly over the second half of the UT 
day to 440 km/s at the time of report issue. This is possibly 
due to the favourably positioned coronal hole. There was a period 
of moderate (-10nT) southward Bz during the first quarter of 
the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23333111
      Darwin               9   22333112
      Townsville           8   23233111
      Learmonth            7   12233111
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               8   13323111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2013 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     6    Quiet 
14 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Moderate southward IMF Bz during the early part of the 
UT day resulted in Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region with Unsettled to Active conditions at higher latitudes. 
Conditions were generally quiet over the later part of the UT 
day. Slightly elevated solar wind parameters possible days one 
to two of the forecast period resulting in periods of Unsettled 
geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data before 06UT.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Briefly depressed to 20% local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Briefly depressed MUF's observed most regions around 
local dawn. Night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Night-time spread-F observed S Aus region. Continuing 
weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation 
conditions mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Disturbed periods possible next 1-2 
days S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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