[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 11 09:48:42 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Active 
region 1226 produced a C2.9 level flare at 1750UT, followed by 
a West-directed CME. This region is now behind the West solar 
limb. There are no regions of complex magnetic structure on the 
visible disk but further C-class activity is possible from AR 
1228. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind after 0820UT. 
This was probably the anticipated arrival of the flare-induced 
CME observed Jun 07. At shock arrival the solar wind speed stepped 
from about 400 to 500 km/s then declined steadily over a few 
hours to 400 km/s. IMF Bz showed mild to moderate fluctuations 
of +/-5nT. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0806UT on 
10 Jun. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21232211
      Darwin               7   21232222
      Townsville           6   21322211
      Learmonth            7   21332111
      Canberra             1   100-----
      Hobart               5   20232111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3322 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun     6    Quiet 
13 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The anticipated solar wind shock resulting from the 
halo CME of Jun 07 was observed at the ACE satellite platform 
at about 0820UT. Geomagnetic disturbance was less than anticipated. 
The Australian regional geomagnetic field became unsettled during 
the second quarter of the UT day, declining to mostly quiet over 
the second half of the UT day. Conditions remained quiet to unsettled 
at high latitudes. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
12 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Night-time depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Night-time spread-F observed S Aus/S Ocean regions. Continuing 
weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation 
conditions mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Disturbance resulting from the anticipated
halo-CME induced solar wind shock was less then expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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