[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 10 09:34:57 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Active region 
1226 produced C1.8 and C4.1 level flares after 0300 UT. This 
region is now on the West solar limb. There are no regions of 
complex magnetic structure on the visible disk but further C-class 
activity is possible from AR 1228. Solar wind speed declined 
steadily over the UT day until 21UT after which velocities increased 
from 350 to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field maintained slightlty negative over the UT day, 
trending to positive at the time of report issue. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to increase with the arrival of the CME 
observed Jun 07. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
09/0035UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222122
      Darwin               7   22312122
      Townsville           7   22322122
      Learmonth            6   22222122
      Canberra             5   12222111
      Hobart               8   22233122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   5422 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun    25    Active 
11 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 June and 
is current for interval 9-10 June. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet 
to Unsettled at low and mid latitudes with isolated Active to 
Minor Storm levels observed at high latitudes. Conditions are 
expected to become Active on day one with the arrival of a CME 
observed Jun 07. Minor to major storm levels possible at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : Began at 0840UT 07/06, Ended at 1730UT 08/06
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
11 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
12 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region. Variable night-time depressions observed 
Equatorial/ N Aus regions. Periods of spread-F mainly local night 
S Aus/NZ regions. Generally weak ionosphere Antarctic region. 
Conditions in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions could be disturbed next 
three days due to anticipated geomagnetic activity associated 
with recent solar flare/CME. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   244000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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