[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 09:25:23 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. No 
sunspot regions of significant size or magnetic complexity are 
on the disc. The solar wind speed ranged between 450-600 km/s. 
The IMF Bz ranged between +/- 5nT with extended southward periods. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the forecast 
period. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually reduce 
for the first part of the 9th before increasing around the middle 
of the UT day due to the expected arrival of a CME from the M2.4 
flare observed on the 7th. Wind speeds are expected to be elevated 
on the 10th and begin to reduce to quiescent levels on the 11th. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32113102
      Darwin               8   33213102
      Townsville           8   33123102
      Learmonth            7   32213112
      Canberra             3   22112001
      Hobart               8   42123102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1011 1243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun    25    Active to minor storm 
10 Jun    25    Active to minor storm 
11 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 June and 
is current for interval 9-10 June. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet 
to Unsettled at low and mid latitudes with isolated Active to 
Minor Storm levels in polar regions. Mainly Quiet conditions 
are expected for the first part of the 9th, increasing to Active 
with possible Minor Storm conditions at low and mid latitudes 
and Minor Storm levels in polar regions due to the expected arrival 
of a CME. These condtions are expected to continue on the 10th 
and then reduce to Unsettled with possible Active periods on 
the 11th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : Began at 0840UT 07/06, Ended at 1730UT 08/06
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
10 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jun    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressions of up to 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressions of up to 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
10 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
11 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region. Some night time depressed MUF periods 
were observed in Northern regions. Generally weak ionosphere 
observed in the Antarctic region. Blanketing sporadic E was observed 
for much of the night around Hobart. Propagation conditions may 
be affected by an expected geomagnetic disturbance occuring for 
the next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    54200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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