[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 8 09:29:28 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    0634UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    96/43              94/40              94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate with a single long duration 
M2.5 class X-ray flare from region 1226(S21W64) at 0616UT. Type 
II and IV radio bursts and a large CME were observed associated 
with this flare. LASCO and STEREO imagery indicate that a significant 
portion of the ejected plasma is likely to strike the Earth at 
an expected arrival time around the middle of June 9th UT. The 
solar wind speed increased from around 400 km/s to up to 500 
km/s. The IMF Bz had several southward excursions of up to -8nT. 
Flare activity is expected to be Low over the next few days. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain around current levels 
for the next day and then is expected to increase on the 9th 
due to the CME observed at 0616UT. Significant IMF Bz southward 
excursions are possible after this time. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
07/0215UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11111233
      Darwin               6   11111233
      Townsville           7   11211233
      Learmonth            7   01121333
      Canberra             2   00000222
      Hobart               3   1101122-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3221 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Jun    25    active 
10 Jun    25    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low and 
mid lattitudes with isolated Active to Minor Storm levels in 
polar regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over 
the next day due to mildly elevated solar wind speeds with some 
IMF Bz southward excursions occuring. Conditions are expected 
to become Active with Minor Storms at high lattiudes on the 9th 
and 10th of June due to the expected arrival of a CME. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 06 2011 0840UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
09 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
10 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by up to 30% between 07-12UT, 
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable conditions around monthly values,
      Some depressions of up to 30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Blanketing sporadic E was observed at times in equatorial 
regions and also for much of the local night at Hobart. A short 
wave fadeout was observed at Cocos Island around 07UT following 
an M2.4 solar X-ray flare. This event also caused a Polar Cap 
Absorpotion (PCA) event begining around 08UT which remains in 
progress. Propagation conditions may be affected by an expected 
geomagnetic disturbance on the 9th and 10th of June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    64300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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