[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 7 09:31:11 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    98/45              96/43              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1226(S22W52) produced two C class flares and region 1228(N18W33) 
produced several B class flares. A CME directed mainly to the 
south west of the disc was observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery 
at around 10UT. This is directed well south of the ecliptic and 
unlikely to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed reduced from 
480-420 km/s over the day with IMF Bz fluctuations of +/- 4nT. 
Solar actvity is expected to remain Low over the next few days. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be at low levels over 
the next few days. No major Bz fluctuations are expected. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21220111
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           4   21220111
      Learmonth            4   22120211
      Canberra             2   11120000
      Hobart               3   11220111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27   6444 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     5    Quiet 
08 Jun     5    Quiet 
09 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activty was Quiet at low and mid lattitudes 
with isolated minor storms periods in polar regions. Activity 
is expected to be Quiet for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50% during local day,
      Depressed by up to 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% between 05-13UT,
      Near predicted monthly values at other times. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were seen at mid 
lattitudes with some night time depressions in northern regions. 
Variable conditions in equatorial regions with significant daytime 
enhancements and some night time depressions. Propagation conditions 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    89700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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