[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 7 09:31:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 96/43 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1226(S22W52) produced two C class flares and region 1228(N18W33)
produced several B class flares. A CME directed mainly to the
south west of the disc was observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery
at around 10UT. This is directed well south of the ecliptic and
unlikely to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed reduced from
480-420 km/s over the day with IMF Bz fluctuations of +/- 4nT.
Solar actvity is expected to remain Low over the next few days.
The solar wind speed is expected to be at low levels over
the next few days. No major Bz fluctuations are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21220111
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 4 21220111
Learmonth 4 22120211
Canberra 2 11120000
Hobart 3 11220111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27 6444 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 5 Quiet
08 Jun 5 Quiet
09 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activty was Quiet at low and mid lattitudes
with isolated minor storms periods in polar regions. Activity
is expected to be Quiet for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-50% during local day,
Depressed by up to 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% between 05-13UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by up to 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were seen at mid
lattitudes with some night time depressions in northern regions.
Variable conditions in equatorial regions with significant daytime
enhancements and some night time depressions. Propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 89700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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