[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:47:35 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              98/45              96/43

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain so for the next 3 days, with the chance 
of an isolated C-class event. Solar wind speed has declined from 
~550km/s to ~500km/s. The IMF Bz component was disturbed (max 
+/-20nT) until 10UT but has since settled and has recently varied 
between -3nT and +5nT. Solar wind speed parameters are expected 
to continue to settle over the 1-2 days. SDO images show a filament 
erupting from the NE quadrant at 0410UT. This appeared to be 
associated with a CME observed in STEREO and SOHO images around 
0624UT. This CME is likely to be weakly geoeffective around 11 
Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 05 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   54432321
      Darwin              23   5543232-
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           23   55532321
      Canberra            14   53322311
      Hobart              16   54322321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin              61   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            82   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   0110 0156     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: There is a chance of isolated active periods on 6 Jun. 
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0533UT on 05 Jun. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal-poor    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jun    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Macquarie Island: Near predicted monthly values for the UT day.
      Casey: Depressed by ~50% from 04-09UT.
      

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun    60    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Significant enhancements over most of the Aust/NZ region 
around 03UT. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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