[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:32:14 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             100/48              98/45

COMMENT: Region 1226 (S21W25) produced a C1.6 flare at 03/2242 
UT. No flares were observed on the 4th June. Solar wind parameters 
(ACE) were undisturbed until ~2000 UT. After that time, the
north-south IMF ranged between +/-20 nT and the wind speed increased
sharply to 500 km/s. The solar wind parameters are expected to be
disturbed on day one, decreasing in activity on day two. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
04/1855UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01100023
      Darwin               3   0120003-
      Townsville           4   1221111-
      Learmonth            3   00110043
      Canberra             2   0000003-
      Hobart               0   1100000-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2110 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    18    Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods with 
                possible isolated minor storm periods at high 
                latitudes. 
06 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible. 
07 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
06 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jun    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   No data for all stations after 2045 UT.
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced.
      Depressed 25% at 2045 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      08-09 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      12-17 UT. No data from Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      25% observed at Christchurch and Hobart 09-17 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
      observed 00-07 UT. Depressions to 30% observed 11-13
      UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
06 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
07 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionosphere appeared disturbed at all latitudes over 
the reporting period, probably degrading communications.
Communicators can expect similar conditions on day one of the
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    41500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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