[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:32:14 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 98/45
COMMENT: Region 1226 (S21W25) produced a C1.6 flare at 03/2242
UT. No flares were observed on the 4th June. Solar wind parameters
(ACE) were undisturbed until ~2000 UT. After that time, the
north-south IMF ranged between +/-20 nT and the wind speed increased
sharply to 500 km/s. The solar wind parameters are expected to be
disturbed on day one, decreasing in activity on day two.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
04/1855UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 01100023
Darwin 3 0120003-
Townsville 4 1221111-
Learmonth 3 00110043
Canberra 2 0000003-
Hobart 0 1100000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 18 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods with
possible isolated minor storm periods at high
latitudes.
06 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
07 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
No data for all stations after 2045 UT.
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced.
Depressed 25% at 2045 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
08-09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
12-17 UT. No data from Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% observed at Christchurch and Hobart 09-17 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
observed 00-07 UT. Depressions to 30% observed 11-13
UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
06 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
07 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionosphere appeared disturbed at all latitudes over
the reporting period, probably degrading communications.
Communicators can expect similar conditions on day one of the
forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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