[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 4 09:36:51 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   106/55             104/53             102/50

COMMENT: Region 1226 (S22W14) produced a C2.5 flare at 1617 UT. 
Solar wind parameters (ACE) were undisturbed over the reporting 
period. Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed on 
days one and two due to the CMES observed on 1 and 2 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               2   21110011
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            1   11200000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   11110000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2232 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun    20    Unsettled to active, isolated minor storms levels 
                possible. 
05 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 
06 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled, possible isolated active 
                periods early in day. 

COMMENT: Storm periods likely at high latitudes over the forecast
period. 

IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 3 June and is current for
interval 4 June only. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
05 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
06 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      14-16 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      07-11 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
      11-17 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      10-14 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
05 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
06 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    97600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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