[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 4 09:36:51 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 106/55 104/53 102/50
COMMENT: Region 1226 (S22W14) produced a C2.5 flare at 1617 UT.
Solar wind parameters (ACE) were undisturbed over the reporting
period. Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed on
days one and two due to the CMES observed on 1 and 2 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 1 11200000
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2232 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storms levels
possible.
05 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
06 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled, possible isolated active
periods early in day.
COMMENT: Storm periods likely at high latitudes over the forecast
period.
IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 3 June and is current for
interval 4 June only.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
05 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
14-16 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
07-11 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
11-17 UT. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
10-14 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
05 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
06 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 97600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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