[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:40:17 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1132(N10E61) produced a C1.8 flare. C1.2 and C2.7 flares were 
observed from region 1126(S22E05). Region 1227(S19E17) produced 
C1.4 and C3.7 flares, the latter (at 0746UT) was associated with 
a partial-halo CME expected to be geoeffective on 4 Jun. Further 
C-class events are expected over the next 3 days. Solar wind 
speed decreased gradually over the last 24 hours from ~500km/s 
to ~450km/s. IMF Bz varied from 0 to -5nT until ~18UT and has 
fluctuated between +/-3nT since then. Solar wind speed is expected 
to increase with the onset of a coronal hole on 3 Jun. The solar 
wind parameters will probably be disturbed for the next 3 days 
due to combined coronal hole and CME effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22232111
      Darwin               5   22221121
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            8   22332211
      Canberra             4   22222010
      Hobart               6   22232110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3131 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    16    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jun    20    Active 
05 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: Active periods are expected for the next 3 days with 
occasional Storm periods at higher latitudes. A weak CME is expected 
on 3 Jun with stronger CME impacts on 4 and 5 Jun. Coronal hole 
effects are expected for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 15% over the UT
day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
04 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
05 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed 
                at times. 
COMMENT: Occasional depressions are expected over the next 3 
days, due to CME and coronal hole effects. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 535 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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