[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 2 09:43:57 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. A C2 
flare was observed from region 1228(N17E41) at 0253UT and C1, 
C2 and C4 flares from 1226(S22E18). The last of these (at 1708UT) 
was associated with a CME which is expected to impact earth on 
5 Jun. A CME observed in STEREO images at ~04UT will possibly 
be geoeffective late on 3 Jun. Further C-class events are likely 
over the next few days. Solar wind speed decreased gradually 
from ~600km/s to ~500km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT and 
has remained southward for the last 2 hours. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be more disturbed over the next 2-3 days with 
the possible influence of CMEs observed today and on 27 and 29 
May. Coronal hole effects are expected to increase from 3 Jun. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
01/1750UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   21312323
      Darwin               9   21312323
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            9   21312323
      Canberra             8   22312312
      Hobart               7   21312312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3333 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    12    Unsettled 
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jun    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Active periods are expected for the next 3 days. Storm 
periods are likely at high latitudes due to CME and coronal hole 
effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
03 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions are expected over the next 3 
days, especially on 3 Jun, due to the effects of possible CME 
impacts and an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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