[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:36:04 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. C1 flares 
were observed from regions 1226(S21E33) and 1227(S18E45). Further 
C-class events are likely over the next few days. Solar wind 
speed increased from ~550km/s and is now varying between 550-650km/s. 
IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT and has remained mostly southward 
for the last 4 hours. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain 
disturbed over the next day, becoming more so on 2-3 Jun with 
the possible influence of CMEs observed on 27 and 29 May and 
mild coronal hole effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332222
      Darwin               9   22332222
      Townsville           9   223322--
      Learmonth           12   22333233
      Canberra             9   22332222
      Hobart              10   22333222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3213 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Jun    12    Unsettled 
03 Jun    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Unsettled over 
the past 24 hours with Storm periods at high latitudes. Activity 
is expected to decline slightly over the next day, with increased 
activity again on 2 Jun due to possible impact of the CMEs observed 
on 27 and 29 May and mild coronal hole effects. Some Active periods 
are possible on 2-3 Jun. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected over the next 
3 days with the possibility of depressions at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 610 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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