[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 17 09:48:24 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. 
Four C-class flares were observed today, the largest 
being a C7.1 flare at 1022UT from region 1236(N17E58). 
A dissapearing filament was observed in SDO imagery at 
1426UT after which a narrow CME off the SW limb was 
observed in LASCO imagery at 1612UT. It is not expected 
to have any significant geoeffective component. Solar 
wind speed mostly varied between 420Km/s and 460Km/s 
until 1500UT after which speed increased to 500 km/s. 
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT over the UT day 
trending to positive at the time of report issue. Solar 
activity is expected to be low over the next 3 days 
with some possibility of isolated M-class flares. Solar 
wind speed is expected to decrease back to normal levels 
over the next 24 hours and stay at normal levels for the 
following two days. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 16/1550UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111300
      Darwin               3   11111201
      Townsville           2   11110201
      Learmonth            3   11011300
      Canberra             2   01000300
      Hobart               2   00101300
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2222 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     7    Quiet to unsettled 
18 Jun     5    Quiet 
19 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled conditions observed on some locations after 1500UT 
most likely due to the slight incease observed in the solar wind 
speed around that time. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled on 17 June and mostly quiet on the following 
two days thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair           Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed on 16 June. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected on 17 June. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 18 and 19 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
18 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night-time depressions up to 30% were observed in the 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Continuing weak ionosphere observed 
in Antarctic region. Otherwise propagation conditions mostly 
near predicted monthly values. Expect nearly similar conditions 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 483 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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