[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 30 09:28:58 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1261 (N16E33) produced ten C flares, the largest
flare of the day a C6.3 at 1640 UT. This region has increased
in size. Region 1260 (N19E03) produced two C-class flares. This
region has increased in length and retains its magnetic complexity.
Region 1263 (N18E59) produced 1 C flare and appears stable. There
continues to be the chance for M-class flares. Solar wind parameters
were undisturbed over the reporting period, although there was
a step in the speed and temperature around 1300 UT with speed
increasing to ~400 km/s. There may be some brief, mild disturbance
on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July. Solar wind parameters should
become disturbed on 31 July due to the effects of a coronal hole.
The disturbance should continue on 1 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12112201
Darwin 4 12212201
Townsville 4 12112201
Learmonth 2 11002200
Canberra 1 01001200
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1200 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
31 Jul 12 Quiet to active
01 Aug 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Possible brief isolated active levels on 30 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
31 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
31 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
01 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 58600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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