[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 30 09:28:58 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 112/63

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1261 (N16E33) produced ten C flares, the largest 
flare of the day a C6.3 at 1640 UT. This region has increased 
in size. Region 1260 (N19E03) produced two C-class flares. This 
region has increased in length and retains its magnetic complexity. 
Region 1263 (N18E59) produced 1 C flare and appears stable. There 
continues to be the chance for M-class flares. Solar wind parameters 
were undisturbed over the reporting period, although there was 
a step in the speed and temperature around 1300 UT with speed 
increasing to ~400 km/s. There may be some brief, mild disturbance 
on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July. Solar wind parameters should 
become disturbed on 31 July due to the effects of a coronal hole. 
The disturbance should continue on 1 August. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112201
      Darwin               4   12212201
      Townsville           4   12112201
      Learmonth            2   11002200
      Canberra             1   01001200
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1200 0012     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
31 Jul    12    Quiet to active
01 Aug    12    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Possible brief isolated active levels on 30 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
31 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jul    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
31 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
01 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains 
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies 
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    58600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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