[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:37:24 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.3    0209UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 113/64

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1261 (N17E22) produced a single M9.3 flare at 
0209 UT. LASCO and STEREO images show no associated CME. This 
region continues to have a complex magnetic configuration. New 
region 1265 (N18W41) produced the only other flare, a C1 at 1217 
UT. There is the possibility of M-class flares over the forecast 
pariod. Solar wind parameters were somewhat disturbed with Bz 
ranging between +10 to -12 nT and speed increasing from 380 to 
550 km/s, with a step in parameters around 0900 UT. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to be disturbed due to coronal hole effects 
on 31 July and 1 August, settling on 2 August. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22223333
      Darwin              10   42222333
      Townsville          12   31423333
      Learmonth           14   33422343
      Canberra             8   11113233
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           50   (Unsettled)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1100 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    14    Quiet to active. 
01 Aug    12    Quiet to active. 
02 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 30 July and 
is current for interval 31 July to 1 August. Isolated minor storm 
periods on 31 July and 1 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
02 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jul    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
01 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
02 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Short wave fadeout lasted approximately 15 minutes with 
all frequencies being absorbed at Darwin and Norfolk Is. for 
a few minutes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    63900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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