[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 29 09:28:38 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E19) produced at least eleven C flares, 
the largest a C5.3 at 1212 UT. This region has increased in size 
and magnetic complexity and has the potential for M-class flares. 
Region 1261 (N17E51) produced a C1.6 flare at 1815 UT and has 
reconfigured, now appearing stable. Region 1263 (N18E75) appears 
stable while region 1264 (S31E54) appears as a single spot. Solar 
wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period and 
are expected to be undisturbed on 29 July. There may be some 
brief, mild disturbance on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July. 
Solar wind parameters should become disturbed on 31 July due 
to the effects of a coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11100001
      Canberra             1   12000000
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1200 1102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet 
30 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
31 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible brief isolated active levels on 30 July. Active 
periods on 31 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
30 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
31 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jul    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      35% 11-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 00-02, 07-09 and 19-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% 00-18 and 21-22 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 25% during 03-14 UT. Enhancements
      to 25% observed at Learmonth and Perth 16-21 UT.
      Night spread F observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions
      to 35% around 10-13 UT. Weak night ionosphere.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
30 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
31 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains 
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies 
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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