[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 28 09:31:37 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1609UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  99/46

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Region 1260 (N19E32) grew and produced eight C flares 
and an M1.1 flare at 1607 UT; this region has the potential for 
further M-class flares. Region 1261 (N16E64) was stable and is 
impressive in size while region 1262 (N17W37) is declining. Two 
new regions, located at N18E85 and S32E64, are both unipolar 
and stable. A faint CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO A images 
erupting around 0645 UT. Although most of the ejecta is northward 
bound, it is considered there will be some impact. A northern 
coronal hole is nearing a geo-effective location. Solar wind 
parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period and are 
expected to be undisturbed on 28 and 29 July. There may be some 
brief, mild disturbance on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July. 
Any disturbance from the coronal hole is not expected until around 
31 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           1   ---00111
      Learmonth            1   11100010
      Canberra             1   01200000
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville          32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2221 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     5    Quiet 
29 Jul     5    Quiet 
30 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active levels on 30 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
30 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jul    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly depressed 10 to 30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      00-01, 05-09, 11-13 and 20-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 15-35% depressed at Darwin. Near predicted
      monthly values with depressions to 25% 10-12 UT at
      Townsville. Night spread F observed at Townsville 14-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      observed at most stations 06-14 UT. Enhancements to 35%
      16-20 UT. Night spread F observed at Brisbane, Hobart and
      Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionosphere with depressions to 25% 08-10 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
29 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
30 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains 
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies 
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list