[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 28 09:31:37 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1609UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Region 1260 (N19E32) grew and produced eight C flares
and an M1.1 flare at 1607 UT; this region has the potential for
further M-class flares. Region 1261 (N16E64) was stable and is
impressive in size while region 1262 (N17W37) is declining. Two
new regions, located at N18E85 and S32E64, are both unipolar
and stable. A faint CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO A images
erupting around 0645 UT. Although most of the ejecta is northward
bound, it is considered there will be some impact. A northern
coronal hole is nearing a geo-effective location. Solar wind
parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period and are
expected to be undisturbed on 28 and 29 July. There may be some
brief, mild disturbance on 30 July due to the CME on 27 July.
Any disturbance from the coronal hole is not expected until around
31 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 1 ---00111
Learmonth 1 11100010
Canberra 1 01200000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 5 Quiet
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active levels on 30 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly depressed 10 to 30%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-01, 05-09, 11-13 and 20-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 15-35% depressed at Darwin. Near predicted
monthly values with depressions to 25% 10-12 UT at
Townsville. Night spread F observed at Townsville 14-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
observed at most stations 06-14 UT. Enhancements to 35%
16-20 UT. Night spread F observed at Brisbane, Hobart and
Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionosphere with depressions to 25% 08-10 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
29 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
30 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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