[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:31:45 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              97/44              99/46

COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E46) produced a C1.2 flare at 0339 UT. 
This region and new region 1261 (N17E77) produced a number of 
sub-flares. Both regions appear stable. Culgoora Observatory 
noted a new region (single spot) located at N18W22. A C3.8 flare 
occurred at 2241UT, source unknown at this time. Solar wind speed 
decreased to around 450 km/s while the north/south IMF component 
ranged between +/-5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
be undisturbed over the forecast period although there is the 
possibility of mild disturbance late on 28 to 29 July due to 
coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211021
      Darwin               5   22221021
      Townsville           4   22211021
      Learmonth            5   22320020
      Canberra             1   11100010
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2332 3232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     5    Quiet 
28 Jul     5    Quiet 
29 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
28 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jul    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
26-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40% 14-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
  Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40% 08-10 UT
  and depressions to 25% 11 and 20-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
  Mostly depressed to 35% at Darwin. Near predicted monthly values
  with depressions to 25% 10-12, 22-23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25% mostly
  around 08-12, 22-23 UT. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Weak ionosphere with MUFs near predicted monthly values to 25%
  depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
28 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
29 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains 
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies 
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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