[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 26 09:33:08 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              86/29              86/29

COMMENT: Region 1260 (N20E59) showed strong growth producing 
a couple of subflares, all other regions were stable or decaying. 
Solar wind speed increased from 450 to 640 km/s while the north/south 
IMF component ranged between +/-6 nT. A weak coronal hole is 
the likely cause of the elevation in speed. Solar wind speed 
is expected to decrease over 26 and 27 Jul. A CME was observed 
in LASCO and STEREO images around 24/1940 UT; it is not expected 
to be geo-effective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23223121
      Darwin               9   23323122
      Townsville           9   23233121
      Learmonth            8   22223231
      Canberra             4   12222110
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2001 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Jul     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Periods of minor storm levels were observed at southern 
high latitudes. Active levels possible at high latitudes on 26 
and 27 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jul    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced 03-11
      UT. Depressions to 35% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
      00, 12-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%. Depressions to 35% at Hobart and
      Learmonth 12-20 UT. Night spread F observed at most
      stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere with frequencies near predicted
      monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
27 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
28 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Expect depressed conditions while solar flux remains 
low. Occasional solar activity will increase usable frequencies 
nearer to those predicted with the monthly T index. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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