[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 25 09:43:05 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              84/26              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
New region 1260(N20E71) was numbered today. Solar wind speed 
reduced from 500 Km/s to 400 Km/s over the UT day and the IMF 
Bz fluctuated mostly between +/- 2nT. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor 
C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at the 
to normal levels for the next few days as the recent coronal 
hole high speed stream rotated away. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110221
      Darwin               3   21110121
      Townsville           4   11110222
      Learmonth            3   11010221
      Canberra             1   01000110
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3322 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     5    Quiet 
26 Jul     7    Quiet 
27 Jul     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at Low and Mid latitudes 
(no data from Hobart). Polar regions were predominately Quiet 
with Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet 
for the next 3 days. ~ 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
26 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
27 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas 
over the last 24 hours. Periods of Sporadic-E and Spread-F were 
observed at times during the forecast period. HF conditions are 
expected to be similar for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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