[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 24 09:41:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No regions on the disc have a high flare probability. Solar wind 
speed continued to decline from 600 Km/s to be about 500 Km/s 
at the time of this report. The IMF Bz fluctuated mostly between 
+/- 2nT over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to 
remain Very Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor 
C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to return to quiescent 
levels during the next 24 hours. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22220111
      Darwin               5   22220211
      Townsville           4   22220111
      Learmonth            5   22220221
      Canberra             4   12220111
      Hobart               3   1222010-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2331 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul     5    Quiet 
25 Jul     5    Quiet 
26 Jul     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours for the Australian region. Polar regions were predominately 
Unsettled with isolated Active and Storm periods. Conditions 
are expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressions to 40% 13-17UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    50    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian 
region with IPS Cocos Is. station having depressed periods up 
to 40% during local night. Continuing weak ionosphere for the 
Antarctic region. Similar HF conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 628 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   200000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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