[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:33:53 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed varied between 600-660 km/s trending downwards 
in the later half of the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/- 5nT prior to 08UT then went northward staying close to 0nT 
for the last 10 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain Very 
Low for the next 3 days, with some chance of minor C-class flares. 
Solar wind speed is expected to continue to diminish back to 
quiescent levels over the next day or two as the coronal hole 
high speed stream effects are expected to subside. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23312212
      Darwin               9   33312212
      Townsville           7   23312112
      Learmonth            9   23312223
      Canberra             8   23312212
      Hobart               8   23312212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin              41   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3331 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jul     5    Quiet 
25 Jul     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled for the 
Australian region early in the UT day before decreasing to Quiet 
conditions as Bz turned north. Conditions are expected to be 
Quiet to Unsettled for day 1 with a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
days 2 and 3. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
25 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Mostly Normal propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continuing weak 
ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 677 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   218000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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