[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 22 09:44:59 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    96/43              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed increased gradually from 660 km/s to 740 km/s 
between 00UT and 05UT then declined to be 660km/s at 09UT staying 
around 660 km/s for the rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz mostly 
fluctuated between +/-4nT staying predominately positive (up 
to around +4 nT) between 04UT and 10UT. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of C-class 
flares. Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline over 
the next 3 days as the effects of coronal hole wind stream subside. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22312222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           7   22312221
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Canberra             8   32312221
      Hobart               8   32312222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin              42   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           103   (Major storm)
      Canberra            82   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   3434 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the 
Australian region with Storm periods at high latitudes prior 
to 8UT. After 8 UT the Bz went northward, reducing the activity 
to Quiet levels. Activity is expected to become gradually Quieter 
over the next 3 days with Unsettled periods becoming less frequent. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
24 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Mostly Normal propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continuing weak 
ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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