[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:54:10 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Very Low

Flares: none

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48            100/48            100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1254(S22W17) produced several B class flares the largest 
being a B8.3 flare at 1551UT. The solar wind speed mostly varied 
between 560-680 Km/s over the last 24 hours and the IMF Bz fluctuated 
between +/-5nT with sustained southward excursions. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance 
of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
for the next 2 days due the effects from the geoeffective coronal 
hole.




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 20 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23243323
      Darwin              13   23243323
      Townsville          13   23243323
      Learmonth           14   23243333
      Canberra            12   23243223
      Hobart              14   23343323    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            75   (Active)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg       16
           Planetary            18                       

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       10
           Planetary            18  1123 3544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul    14    Quiet to active
22 Jul    12    Quiet to active
23 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled with an 
isolated active period around 10UT over the last 24 hours for 
the Australian region. Isolated Minor Storm periods were observed 
at high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for 21-22 
July, with activity declining thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
23 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Minor night time 
depressions observed over the Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. 
Generally weak ionosphere for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 534 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   226000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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