[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 20 09:42:58 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
All the active regions on the disk are stable and quiet. The
solar wind speed increased gradually from 400 km/s at 00UT to
be approximately 650km/s at the time of this report. Elevated
solar wind speed is due to the high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bz has fluctuated between +/-5nT
with a more disturbed period to -8nT around 16UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with the chance of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the next 2 days due to the influence of
a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 11232433
Darwin 10 12232333
Townsville 11 12232432
Learmonth 10 01222433
Canberra 9 11131432
Hobart 11 11132433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2322 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 12 Quiet to active
21 Jul 12 Quiet to active
22 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours for the Australian region with an isolated
active period around 16UT most likely due to the onset of coronal
hole high speed stream. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with activity declining on day 3 as the coronal hole
effects start to decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Slight improvement in ionospheric support with variable
HF conditions over the last 24 hours ranging from MUF depressions
of approx 20% during local night for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions to near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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