[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 20 09:42:58 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
All the active regions on the disk are stable and quiet. The 
solar wind speed increased gradually from 400 km/s at 00UT to 
be approximately 650km/s at the time of this report. Elevated 
solar wind speed is due to the high speed solar wind stream from 
a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Bz has fluctuated between +/-5nT 
with a more disturbed period to -8nT around 16UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days 
with the chance of C-class flares. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the next 2 days due to the influence of
a coronal hole. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   11232433
      Darwin              10   12232333
      Townsville          11   12232432
      Learmonth           10   01222433
      Canberra             9   11131432
      Hobart              11   11132433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2322 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    12    Quiet to active 
21 Jul    12    Quiet to active 
22 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
over the last 24 hours for the Australian region with an isolated 
active period around 16UT most likely due to the onset of coronal 
hole high speed stream. Similar conditions are expected for the 
next 2 days with activity declining on day 3 as the coronal hole 
effects start to decline. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
22 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Slight improvement in ionospheric support with variable 
HF conditions over the last 24 hours ranging from MUF depressions 
of approx 20% during local night for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions to near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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