[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 19 09:37:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1254(S22E11) produced a C1 flare at 1028UT. New Regions 1258(N11W37)
and 1259(N26E69) were numbered today. Two CMES were observed
in SOHO/LASCO images early in the period, they are not expected
to be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days. Solar wind speed increased from 380Km/s to 450
km/s arround 0300UT possibly due to a high speed wind stream
from a small coronal hole and has mostly varied between 450-470
km/s for the rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz mostly varied between
+/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase from late on 19 July due to another coronal hole
high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12122111
Darwin 6 13122112
Townsville 6 23122112
Learmonth 5 12222111
Canberra 4 12122101
Hobart 5 12132111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1201 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
21 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region. Unsetled conditions with
possible Active periods from late on 19 July due to the expected
coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas
over the last 24 hours. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions may
cause MUF depressions of ~30% for 19Jul-20Jul for Southern AUS/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 53900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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