[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 19 09:37:45 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             100/48              96/43

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1254(S22E11) produced a C1 flare at 1028UT. New Regions 1258(N11W37) 
and 1259(N26E69) were numbered today. Two CMES were observed 
in SOHO/LASCO images early in the period, they are not expected 
to be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected to be Low for 
the next 3 days. Solar wind speed increased from 380Km/s to 450 
km/s arround 0300UT possibly due to a high speed wind stream 
from a small coronal hole and has mostly varied between 450-470 
km/s for the rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz mostly varied between 
+/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected 
to increase from late on 19 July due to another coronal hole 
high speed stream. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12122111
      Darwin               6   13122112
      Townsville           6   23122112
      Learmonth            5   12222111
      Canberra             4   12122101
      Hobart               5   12132111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1201 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jul    12    Unsettled 
21 Jul    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours 
for the Australian region. Unsetled conditions with 
possible Active periods from late on 19 July due to the expected 
coronal hole effect. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
20 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
21 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times in most areas 
over the last 24 hours. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions may 
cause MUF depressions of ~30% for 19Jul-20Jul for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    53900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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