[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:50:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   104/53             104/53             102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
Newly emerged region 1257 (N19W56) produced a B7.9 class event 
at 1926UT. Solar activity is expected to range between Very Low 
and Low for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class events 
from region 1257 or returning region 1242. Solar wind speed as 
measured by the ACE satellite ranged between 350km/s to 380km/s 
while IMF Bz component ranged betwen +/- 4nT. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain around current levels for the next 24 hours. 
A recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to 
cause an increase in the wind speed sometime on the 19Jul. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22010112
      Darwin               3   22010112
      Townsville           3   22010102
      Learmonth            3   22010111
      Canberra             3   12001--2
      Hobart               2   12010101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1111 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
19 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 
hours. A recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream 
is expected to become geo-effective on 19Jul, bringing predominently 
Unsettled conditions for 19Jul-20Jul with the possibility of 
isolated Active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
20 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
20 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by ~20% during local day and night 
for Equatorial, Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 24 hours. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions may cause 
MUF depressions of ~30% for 19Jul-20Jul for Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    23100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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