[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:50:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 104/53 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
Newly emerged region 1257 (N19W56) produced a B7.9 class event
at 1926UT. Solar activity is expected to range between Very Low
and Low for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class events
from region 1257 or returning region 1242. Solar wind speed as
measured by the ACE satellite ranged between 350km/s to 380km/s
while IMF Bz component ranged betwen +/- 4nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain around current levels for the next 24 hours.
A recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to
cause an increase in the wind speed sometime on the 19Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22010112
Darwin 3 22010112
Townsville 3 22010102
Learmonth 3 22010111
Canberra 3 12001--2
Hobart 2 12010101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. A recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
is expected to become geo-effective on 19Jul, bringing predominently
Unsettled conditions for 19Jul-20Jul with the possibility of
isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by ~20% during local day and night
for Equatorial, Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions may cause
MUF depressions of ~30% for 19Jul-20Jul for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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