[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 17 09:29:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The 
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite ranged between 
360 km/s and 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component ranged betwen +/- 
2nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 
3 days and the solar wind speed is expected to remain around 
current levels for the next 2 days. A recurrent coronal hole 
high speed wind stream is expected to cause an increase in the 
wind speed sometime on the 19th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120101
      Darwin               4   21221111
      Townsville           3   21121101
      Learmonth            3   11220111
      Canberra             2   11110101
      Hobart               1   11110000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
19 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. On 
the 19th a recurrent coronal hole hish speed wind stream is 
expected to become geo-effective, causing Unsettled conditions 
with the possibility of isolated Active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values before 08UT,
      Depressed up to 30% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected 
monthly values. Northern and equatorial regions were depressed 
from late afternoon local time. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. Disturbed geoagnetic conditions may cause 
larger depressions late on the 19th. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    24100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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