[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 16 09:30:07 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The 
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite reduced from 
480km/s to 400 km/s over the day. The IMF Bz component ranged 
betwen +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low 
for the next 3 days and the solar wind speed is expected to remain 
around current levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   13111110
      Darwin               4   13111111
      Townsville           5   13212111
      Learmonth            5   23112110
      Canberra             2   03101000
      Hobart               2   12101000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2323 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     5    Quiet 
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet conditions with an Unsetled period around 
3-4 UT were observed in the Australian region. An Active period 
was observed in Antarctic regions during the same time. Conditions 
are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected 
monthly values. Northern and equatorial regions were depressed 
from late afternoon local time. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 497 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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