[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 15 09:27:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite reduced from
520 km/s to 470 km/s over the day. An increase in speed to 540
km/s occurred around 11UT, accompanied by a small temporary increase
in density and a change in the clock angle of the IMF. This is
probably the weak signature of the edge of the CME observed on
the 11th. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 5nT over the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
days and the solar wind is expected to return to quiescent speed
and magnetic conditions within the next day and continue in that
state for the following 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled,
with an isolated Active period
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 12231211
Darwin 6 12231112
Townsville 6 12231211
Learmonth 7 12232221
Canberra 5 12231210
Hobart 8 12242211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3221 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed across the
Australian region, with an isolated Active period observed at
Hobart. Polar regions were Unsettled to Active. Most of the Unsettled
and Active conditions occured for a short period around 11UT,
coincident with a weak CME signature in the solar wind. Conditions
are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days, with some possibility
of some Unsettled periods on day 1 due to the residual effects
of the coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by up to 30%.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected
monthly values, with some mild depressions in the hours before
local nightfall. Depressions were seen over the day and night
for northern and equatorial regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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