[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 15 09:27:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
All regions currently on disc have a low flare probability. The 
solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite reduced from 
520 km/s to 470 km/s over the day. An increase in speed to 540 
km/s occurred around 11UT, accompanied by a small temporary increase 
in density and a change in the clock angle of the IMF. This is 
probably the weak signature of the edge of the CME observed on 
the 11th. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/- 5nT over the day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days and the solar wind is expected to return to quiescent speed 
and magnetic conditions within the next day and continue in that 
state for the following 2 days. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled,
with an isolated Active period 

Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12231211
      Darwin               6   12231112
      Townsville           6   12231211
      Learmonth            7   12232221
      Canberra             5   12231210
      Hobart               8   12242211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3221 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul     5    Quiet 
16 Jul     5    Quiet 
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed across the 
Australian region, with an isolated Active period observed at 
Hobart. Polar regions were Unsettled to Active. Most of the Unsettled 
and Active conditions occured for a short period around 11UT, 
coincident with a weak CME signature in the solar wind. Conditions 
are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days, with some possibility 
of some Unsettled periods on day 1 due to the residual effects 
of the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by up to 30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected 
monthly values, with some mild depressions in the hours before 
local nightfall. Depressions were seen over the day and night 
for northern and equatorial regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 539 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   207000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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