[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 14 09:31:38 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
Region 1247(S18W54) which has produced several CME events previously 
produced several B class X-ray flares but has decayed in size 
and magnetic complexity. All other regions on disk have low flare 
probabilities. The solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite 
reduced from around 700 km/s to around 500 km/s over the day 
as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates away. The IMF Bz 
component ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to 
remain Very Low to Low over the next few days. The solar wind 
speed is expected to return to normal levels over the next day. 
Some effects from the CME observed on the 11th may be seen in 
the solar wind during the next day, however these are expected 
to be minor. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22122010
      Darwin               4   22121111
      Townsville           4   2-121111
      Learmonth            4   22222010
      Canberra             4   32022000
      Hobart               3   22022010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3301 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jul     5    Quiet 
16 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian 
region, with isolated Active to Minor Storm levels seen in the 
Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days with some chance of isolated Unsettled periods for 
the first day due to residual effects from the recent coronal 
hole high speed stream and some possibility of a minor CME impact. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to up to 30% depressed
      at times. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% around local afternoon to dusk, 
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected 
monthly values, with some depressions in the hours before local 
nightfall. Depressions were seen over the day and night for northern 
and equatorial regions. Significant spread-F conditions were 
present for much of the day at Hobart. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 686 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   427000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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