[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 14 09:31:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
Region 1247(S18W54) which has produced several CME events previously
produced several B class X-ray flares but has decayed in size
and magnetic complexity. All other regions on disk have low flare
probabilities. The solar wind speed as measured by the ACE satellite
reduced from around 700 km/s to around 500 km/s over the day
as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates away. The IMF Bz
component ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to
remain Very Low to Low over the next few days. The solar wind
speed is expected to return to normal levels over the next day.
Some effects from the CME observed on the 11th may be seen in
the solar wind during the next day, however these are expected
to be minor.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22122010
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 4 2-121111
Learmonth 4 22222010
Canberra 4 32022000
Hobart 3 22022010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3301 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region, with isolated Active to Minor Storm levels seen in the
Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with some chance of isolated Unsettled periods for
the first day due to residual effects from the recent coronal
hole high speed stream and some possibility of a minor CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to up to 30% depressed
at times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% around local afternoon to dusk,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jul 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Central and southern Australia MUFs were around expected
monthly values, with some depressions in the hours before local
nightfall. Depressions were seen over the day and night for northern
and equatorial regions. Significant spread-F conditions were
present for much of the day at Hobart. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 686 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 427000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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