[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:24:36 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past 24 hours. Region 
1247 (S18W40) produced a C1 flare at 1444UT. No regions currently 
on the disk have high flare probabilites. The solar wind speed 
as measured by the ACE satellite ranged between 650-700 km/s. 
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is 
expected to remain Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
is expected to diminish back to normal levels over the next 2 
days. The CME observed on the 11th is expected to arrive late 
on the 13th or early on the 14th. Images from the from the STEREO 
spacecraft heliospheric imager instrument, which track CME 
progress further from the Sun than the corongraph images available 
to inform yesterdays forecast, suggest this CME will have little 
if any geo-effectiveness. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32123220
      Darwin               8   32123221
      Townsville           7   32123220
      Learmonth            6   3212-220
      Canberra             5   32011---
      Hobart               5   22013120
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           114   (Major storm)
      Canberra            90   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3234 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    12    Unsettled to active 
14 Jul    14    Unsettled to active 
15 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with some isolated Active 
periods, were observed in the Australian region. Isolated Minor 
Storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with Quiet conditions 
expected on the 15th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed between 15-30%. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by up to 20% during local day,
      Near monthly values during local night. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed periods of up to 30% continue to be experienced 
across the Australian region. Overall the MUFs were somewhat 
more depressed that yesterday. These conditions are expected 
to continue for another 2 days, with some increase in MUF expected 
on the 15th. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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